Account Market Intelligence
Scenarios
A scenario comparison, not a forecast of what will happen. Each line asks one question: if prices drifted at a different annual rate, or market pressure moved at a different speed, where would the global account-price curve sit over the next 8 quarters?
What this posture acts on
Stronger identity verification
Acts on motives that depend on creating or passing as an account holder: bulk registration, rented verification, fabricated or impersonated profiles, sign-ups on stolen identities, and work under someone else's vetted identity.
- LINKFake professional profiles for outreach and social engineering
A study identified 1,003 fake profiles using AI-generated portraits and outsourced management for commercial lead generation.
This salesperson does not exist: GAN-image fake LinkedIn profiles used for lead generation · misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu - GOOGBulk account registration via rented SMS codes
Services resell one-time SMS verification codes so buyers can register accounts in bulk, in one case drawing numbers from compromised handsets.
SMS PVA: An Underground Service Enabling Threat Actors to Register Bulk Fake Accounts · documents.trendmicro.com - FBFabricated profiles with constructed history
A journalist purchased a fabricated profile supplied with an invented posting history and personal details, the kind of asset used to appear authentic.
Shady Marketplaces Selling Fake Facebook Profiles Operate In Plain Sight · buzzfeednews.com - UBERWorking under another verified identity
Driver accounts were advertised for sale or rent across 80 groups, letting people drive under another person's verified identity without passing a background check.
For Sale on Facebook: Fraudulent Uber Driver Accounts · techtransparencyproject.org - AAPLResale of high-value identity accounts
Compromised Apple ID and iCloud accounts were listed among the most valuable non-financial account types in a darknet price study, behind only banking and payment credentials.
Criminals pay just $15 for Apple iCloud account IDs, report claims · computerworld.com - ABNBFraudulent host listings
The platform disclosed removing 59,000 fake listings and blocking 157,000 more in a year, indicating demand for host accounts used to post fraudulent listings.
Airbnb says it is cracking down on fake listings and has removed 59,000 of them · apnews.com - IGEngagement and follower farming
An investigation documented large-scale production of engagement and follower accounts aimed primarily at this platform.
Inside an Instagram Bot Farm · vice.com - DASHDriver account rental to bypass vetting
Delivery driver accounts were advertised for rent alongside rideshare accounts in the groups investigators identified.
For Sale on Facebook: Fraudulent Uber Driver Accounts · techtransparencyproject.org - XAI-assisted impersonation bot farms
Prosecutors seized infrastructure behind an AI-assisted bot farm operating close to 1,000 fake accounts impersonating Americans.
Justice Department leads efforts among federal, international and private-sector partners to disrupt covert Russian government-operated social media bot farm · justice.gov - GOOGRenting established mailboxes to pass sign-ups elsewhere
A service rents access to established mailboxes so customers can complete sign-ups in bulk on other platforms, receiving only the verification messages.
Service Rents Email Addresses for Account Signups · krebsonsecurity.com - AMZNSeller registration with stolen identities
Cases were documented of new seller accounts registered with stolen personal identities to bypass identity verification.
Random people are being bombarded with unwanted Amazon packages after having their identities stolen by fraudulent Amazon merchants · businessinsider.com - LINKMass fake-account creation
Transparency reporting indicates roughly 112 million fake accounts removed per year, the scale of automated registration attempts.
Analysis of platform transparency reports on fake-account removals · surfshark.com - GOOGImpersonation of real account holders
Academic measurement of a criminal impersonation market recorded 10,193 profiles sold over 161 days, with buyer preference driven by geography and the resources attached to the account.
Know Your Cybercriminal: measuring profile sales on a criminal impersonation market · usenix.org
Each motive above is documented in a named public source on that platform’s page and links to it. Which posture a motive is grouped under is an editorial classification of that evidence, not a claim made by the source, and grouping a motive here does not mean the posture would defeat it.
Latest threat intel
BleepingComputer
- Press reportHundreds of leaked AWS keys give full control over corporate accounts
Researchers examining more than 64,000 unique cloud access keys exposed publicly between 2022 and 2026 found that around 88% of a retested sample still authenticated, and 768 granted full administrative control of a corporate cloud account.
BleepingComputer · bleepingcomputer.com · 2026-08-21
Recent reports touching what stronger identity verification acts on:
- LINKAnalysis of platform transparency reports on fake-account removalsSurfshark Research · surfshark.com · 2026-03-03
- DASHFor Sale on Facebook: Fraudulent Uber Driver AccountsTech Transparency Project · techtransparencyproject.org · 2025-04-14
- XJustice Department leads efforts among federal, international and private-sector partners to disrupt covert Russian government-operated social media bot farmU.S. Department of Justice · justice.gov · 2024-07-09
- ABNBAirbnb says it is cracking down on fake listings and has removed 59,000 of themAssociated Press · apnews.com · 2023-09-20
Reports are published work by named third parties, listed by publication date and linked in full. They are summarised in the publisher’s own sanitized terms and are not scenario output.
Negative pressure change means abuse pressure easing; positive means worsening. Adjusting either input replaces the selected scenario with your own assumption — the presets above only preload these two numbers.
- Scenario drift
- +25% / yr
- Fitted drift
- -3.9% / yr
- Anchor
- $18.25
- Horizon
- 8 quarters
- Baseline (fitted trend) · -3.9% / yr
- Stronger identity verification · +25% / yr
- Aggressive takedowns and enforcement · +45% / yr
- Defences weaken / automation scales · -30% / yr
The shaded area is the fitted 80% projection interval of the baseline projection, widened with the square root of the horizon. Scenario lines carry no interval of their own — they are assumptions, not estimates.
Median by quarter
Selected scenario against the fitted baselineEnd-state price by platform
Each platform keeps its own observed price level; only the drift changes. Platforms without a disclosed price are absent — no level is invented for them.
How to read a scenario
- Nothing on this page is evidence. Scenario lines carry no observations and are never stored.
- A rising asking price can mean defences are working — supply is scarcer. A falling price can mean supply got easier. Direction is interpreted here, never asserted as fact.
- Asking prices are not realized prices, and the FAM Index is not a platform's fraud rate.
- Scenario paths inherit the baseline's thin evidence base: 9 disclosed prices across 6 platforms. Treat the comparison as a sanity check, not a projection of market value.
- Every line is reproducible from the two parameters shown above plus the fitted anchor.